Ripple
XRP XRP above ___ on May 11?

Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 11?

Closes in 5 days
11 May 2026
71% YES ↑ 15.5% 24h change ↑ 4.5% 1h Live
YES NO 29%
Share:
24h Volume
$27
Liquidity
$4K
Score
96/100
Historical probability + Current XRP price
Loading chart...
YES % Current XRP price
Price vs Target
$1.4309
XRP current →
→ target: $1
Exceeded by 2.2%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 24/100
Total vol. $27
24h Volume $27
Liquidity $4K
Spread 14%
Book depth
Open interest $837
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 1.7%
7d change ↑ 2.8%
Market Cap $88.4B
vs ATH -62.8% vs Jan 18
Historical Context
Move needed -2.2% in 5 days
Market probability 71%
Historical base rate 37.4%
Market is 33.6 pts more optimistic than history
271 of 725 5-day periods for XRP achieved this move · annual vol: 68.7%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 3
Largest trade $7
Avg. trade size $5

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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