Bitcoin
BTC Bitcoin above ___ on May 8?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?

Closes in 4 days
8 May 2026
2.8% YES ↑ 0.2% 24h change ↓ 0.2% 1h Live
YES NO 97.2%
Share:
24h Volume
$250
Liquidity
$13K
Score
82/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$78,666
BTC current →
→ target: $86,000
Still 9.3% away
Market Stats
Market efficiency 42/100
Total vol. $379
24h Volume $250
Liquidity $13K
Spread 1.4%
Book depth
Open interest $20.6K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↓ 0.2%
7d change ↑ 0.9%
Market Cap $1.58T
vs ATH -37.6% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed +9.3% in 4 days
Market probability 2.8%
Historical base rate 2.9%
Market is broadly aligned with history
21 of 726 4-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 38.8%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 4
Largest trade $107
Avg. trade size $37

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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