Bitcoin
BTC Bitcoin above ___ on May 8?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?

Closes in 4 days
8 May 2026
93% YES ↑ 0% 24h change ↓ 0.5% 1h Live
YES NO 7%
Share:
24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$15K
Score
84/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$78,666
BTC current →
→ target: $74,000
Exceeded by 5.9%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 41/100
Total vol. $7.1K
24h Volume $1K
Liquidity $15K
Spread 2%
Book depth
Open interest $20.6K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↓ 0.2%
7d change ↑ 0.9%
Market Cap $1.58T
vs ATH -37.6% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed -5.9% in 4 days
Market probability 93%
Historical base rate 8.8%
Market is 84.2 pts more optimistic than history
64 of 726 4-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 38.8%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 96% Sell 4%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 16
Largest trade $226
Avg. trade size $30

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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