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Trove founder arrested by March 31?

Clôture dans 11 jours
1 avr. 2026
9.6% OUI ↑ 0% Variation 24h En direct
OUI NON 90.4%
Partager:
Volume 24h
Liquidité
$713
Score
86/100
Probabilité historique
Chargement du graphique...
OUI %
Données du marché
Efficacité du marché 21/100
Vol. total
Volume 24h
Liquidité $713
Écart 16.2%
Profondeur du carnet
Intérêt ouvert
Voir sur PolyMarket ↗
Activité de trading (24h)
Achat 0% Vente 100%
Vendeurs dominants
Trades (24h) 1
Plus gros trade $22
Trade moyen $22

À propos de ce marché

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the trove founder (https://x.com/unwisecap) is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The arrested or detained individual must be credibly identified as the Trove founder operating the X account https://x.com/unwisecap, as confirmed by official statements, court documents, or a consensus of credible reporting Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Comprendre ce marché

YES% = Probabilité

Le YES% est l'estimation collective de probabilité par les participants du marché. Un prix de 0,72 signifie que les traders estiment une probabilité de 72% de résolution YES — chaque part de $1 rapporte $1 si l'événement se produit, $0 sinon.

Spread et Score

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Taux Historique de Base

Le taux historique de base montre la fréquence à laquelle un mouvement de prix similaire s'est produit dans des fenêtres temporelles comparables. Un écart important entre la probabilité du marché et le taux historique peut signaler une sur- ou sous-évaluation.

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