BTC
Who will the "Finding Satoshi" documentary identify as Satoshi?
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?
Sobre este mercado
This market will resolve to the individual identified as the primary creator of Bitcoin by the “Finding Satoshi” documentary expected to release on April 22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08). If the documentary identifies multiple individuals, this market will resolve according to the individual which the documentary most directly depicts, or presents as most likely to be responsible for creating Bitcoin. If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other". If the documentary is not released by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
Who will the "Finding Satoshi" documentary identify as Satoshi?
11 mercados
Cómo interpretar este mercado
El porcentaje YES representa la probabilidad colectiva del mercado. Un precio de 0.72 significa que los traders estiman un 72% de probabilidad de resolución YES — cada acción de $1 vale $1 si ocurre el evento, $0 si no.
El spread bid-ask es el coste de operar. Spreads ajustados (< 2%) indican mercados líquidos y activos. La puntuación competitiva (0–100) refleja la calidad y eficiencia del mercado.
La tasa histórica base muestra con qué frecuencia se produjo un movimiento de precio similar en ventanas de tiempo comparables. Una gran diferencia entre la probabilidad del mercado y la tasa histórica puede indicar sobre o infravaloración.
Datos de PolyMarket vía Gamma API, actualizados cada 15 minutos. Precios de criptomonedas de CoinMarketCap.
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