Ripple
XRP What price will XRP hit May 4-10?

Will XRP dip to $1.20 May 4-10?

Closes in 6 days
11 May 2026
6.2% YES ↑ 0% 24h change ↓ 9.6% 1h Live
YES NO 93.8%
Share:
24h Volume
Liquidity
$3K
Score
84/100
Historical probability + Current XRP price
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YES % Current XRP price
Price vs Target
$1.3920
XRP current →
→ target: $1
Exceeded by 13.8%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 21/100
Total vol.
24h Volume
Liquidity $3K
Spread 10.3%
Book depth
Open interest $792
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 0.3%
7d change ↓ 0.6%
Market Cap $86.0B
vs ATH -63.8% vs Jan 18
Historical Context
Move needed -13.8% in 6 days
Market probability 6.2%
Historical base rate 3.7%
Market is broadly aligned with history
27 of 723 6-day periods for XRP achieved this move · annual vol: 68.8%

About this market

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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