defi

Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?

Closes in 254 days
1 Jan 2027
32.5% YES ↑ 0% 24h change ↓ 0.5% 1h Live
YES NO 67.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$69
Liquidity
$2K
Score
67/100
Historical probability
Loading chart...
YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 17/100
Total vol. $69
24h Volume $69
Liquidity $2K
Spread 31%
Book depth
Open interest $52
View on PolyMarket ↗
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 3
Largest trade $24
Avg. trade size $17

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized AAVE TVL datapoint has a value lower than the TVL specified in the title on any day between the date of this market's creation and December 31. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the Aave page available at https://defillama.com/protocol/aave/, with TVL displayed in USD on the daily chart. The TVL value used for resolution will be the “TVL” value displayed for each daily bar. A daily bar will be considered finalized once the next day’s bar is published. If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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