Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026?
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Will Noble launch a token by ___?
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Understanding This Market
The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.
The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.
The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.
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