Bitcoin
BTC What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Closes in 195 days
1 Jan 2027
26.5% YES ↓ 0.5% 24h change ↓ 3.5% 7d change Live
YES NO 73.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$78K
Score
95/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
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YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$63,130
BTC current →
→ target: $90,000
Still 42.6% away
Market Stats
Market efficiency 54/100
Total vol. $931.0K
24h Volume $2K
Liquidity $78K
Spread 1%
Book depth $29.1K
Open interest $7.4M
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 0.6%
7d change ↓ 1.3%
Market Cap $1.27T
vs ATH -50% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed +42.6% in 195 days
Market probability 26.5%
Historical base rate 18.5%
Market is broadly aligned with history
99 of 535 195-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 38.7%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 52% Sell 48%
Balanced
Trades (24h) 24
Largest trade $291
Avg. trade size $69

About this market

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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