BTC
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by ___?
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title, a quantum computer is demonstrated to have recovered the private key from a Bitcoin address using a quantum algorithm. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The demonstration must be publicly documented and verified. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Understanding This Market
The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.
The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.
The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.
Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap
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