Ethereum
ETH Ethereum above ___ on May 13?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13?

Closes in 4 days
13 May 2026
88.5% YES ↑ 9% 24h change ↑ 3% 1h Live
YES NO 11.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$115
Liquidity
$12K
Score
87/100
Historical probability + Current ETH price
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YES % Current ETH price
Price vs Target
$2,317
ETH current →
→ target: $2,200
Exceeded by 5.1%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 44/100
Total vol. $740
24h Volume $115
Liquidity $12K
Spread 1%
Book depth
Open interest $4.8K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 1.1%
7d change ↑ 0.6%
Market Cap $279.6B
vs ATH -53.2% vs Aug 25
Historical Context
Move needed -5.1% in 4 days
Market probability 88.5%
Historical base rate 20.2%
Market is 68.3 pts more optimistic than history
147 of 726 4-day periods for ETH achieved this move · annual vol: 59%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 83% Sell 17%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 17
Largest trade $3
Avg. trade size $2

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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