Ethereum
ETH Ethereum above ___ on May 11?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11?

Closes in 5 days
11 May 2026
88.5% YES ↑ 3% 24h change ↓ 2% 1h Live
YES NO 11.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$149
Liquidity
$6K
Score
87/100
Historical probability + Current ETH price
Loading chart...
YES % Current ETH price
Price vs Target
$2,355
ETH current →
→ target: $2,200
Exceeded by 6.6%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 39/100
Total vol. $229
24h Volume $149
Liquidity $6K
Spread 3%
Book depth
Open interest $10.7K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 0.4%
7d change ↑ 3%
Market Cap $284.2B
vs ATH -52.4% vs Aug 25
Historical Context
Move needed -6.6% in 5 days
Market probability 88.5%
Historical base rate 18.1%
Market is 70.4 pts more optimistic than history
131 of 725 5-day periods for ETH achieved this move · annual vol: 59%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 18
Largest trade $21
Avg. trade size $4

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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