Bitcoin
BTC Bitcoin above ___ on May 9?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?

Closes in 6 days
9 May 2026
90% YES ↑ 0% 24h change ↓ 1.5% 1h Live
YES NO 10%
Share:
24h Volume
$165
Liquidity
$12K
Score
86/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$78,248
BTC current →
→ target: $74,000
Exceeded by 5.4%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 42/100
Total vol. $165
24h Volume $165
Liquidity $12K
Spread 2%
Book depth
Open interest $1.3K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↓ 0.1%
7d change ↑ 1%
Market Cap $1.57T
vs ATH -38% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed -5.4% in 6 days
Market probability 90%
Historical base rate 14.4%
Market is 75.6 pts more optimistic than history
104 of 723 6-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 38.8%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 16
Largest trade $27
Avg. trade size $5

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

Statistics →