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Trove founder arrested by March 31?

Cierra en 11 días
1 abr. 2026
14.6% ↑ 0% cambio 24h En vivo
NO 85.4%
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Volumen 24h
Liquidez
$692
Score
66/100
Probabilidad histórica
Cargando gráfico...
SÍ %
Estadísticas del mercado
Eficiencia del mercado 16/100
Vol. total
Volumen 24h
Liquidez $692
Spread 26.1%
Profundidad del libro
Interés abierto
Ver en PolyMarket ↗
Actividad de trades (24h)
Compra 0% Venta 100%
Vendedores dominan
Trades (24h) 1
Mayor trade $22
Trade promedio $22

Sobre este mercado

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the trove founder (https://x.com/unwisecap) is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The arrested or detained individual must be credibly identified as the Trove founder operating the X account https://x.com/unwisecap, as confirmed by official statements, court documents, or a consensus of credible reporting Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Cómo interpretar este mercado

YES% = Probabilidad

El porcentaje YES representa la probabilidad colectiva del mercado. Un precio de 0.72 significa que los traders estiman un 72% de probabilidad de resolución YES — cada acción de $1 vale $1 si ocurre el evento, $0 si no.

Spread y Puntuación

El spread bid-ask es el coste de operar. Spreads ajustados (< 2%) indican mercados líquidos y activos. La puntuación competitiva (0–100) refleja la calidad y eficiencia del mercado.

Tasa Histórica Base

La tasa histórica base muestra con qué frecuencia se produjo un movimiento de precio similar en ventanas de tiempo comparables. Una gran diferencia entre la probabilidad del mercado y la tasa histórica puede indicar sobre o infravaloración.

Datos de PolyMarket vía Gamma API, actualizados cada 15 minutos. Precios de criptomonedas de CoinMarketCap.

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