BitBoy convicted?
Sobre este mercado
BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362 This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Convictions must be for criminal charges. If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case. The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Cómo interpretar este mercado
El porcentaje YES representa la probabilidad colectiva del mercado. Un precio de 0.72 significa que los traders estiman un 72% de probabilidad de resolución YES — cada acción de $1 vale $1 si ocurre el evento, $0 si no.
El spread bid-ask es el coste de operar. Spreads ajustados (< 2%) indican mercados líquidos y activos. La puntuación competitiva (0–100) refleja la calidad y eficiencia del mercado.
La tasa histórica base muestra con qué frecuencia se produjo un movimiento de precio similar en ventanas de tiempo comparables. Una gran diferencia entre la probabilidad del mercado y la tasa histórica puede indicar sobre o infravaloración.
Datos de PolyMarket vía Gamma API, actualizados cada 15 minutos. Precios de criptomonedas de CoinMarketCap.
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