Bitcoin
BTC Bitcoin price on March 26?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 26?

Closes in 5 days
26 Mar 2026
8% YES ↑ 0% 24h change Live
YES NO 92%
Share:
24h Volume
Liquidity
$929
Score
85/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$69,746
BTC current →
→ target: $74,000
Still 6.1% away
Market Stats
Market efficiency 41/100
Total vol.
24h Volume
Liquidity $929
Spread 2%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 0.1%
7d change ↓ 2.1%
Market Cap $1.40T
vs ATH -44.7% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed +6.1% in 5 days
Market probability 8%
Historical base rate 12.1%
Market is broadly aligned with history
88 of 725 5-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 39.6%

About this market

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

Statistics →