other

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?

Closes in 286 days
1 Jan 2027
9% YES ↓ 0.5% 24h change ↑ 1% 7d change Live
YES NO 91%
Share:
24h Volume
$51
Liquidity
$2K
Score
86/100
Historical probability
Loading chart...
YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 41/100
Total vol. $44.4K
24h Volume $51
Liquidity $2K
Spread 2%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 0% Sell 100%
Sellers dominant
Trades (24h) 1
Largest trade $4
Avg. trade size $4

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

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Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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