Bitcoin
BTC Bitcoin best month in 2026?

Will March be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Closes in 286 days
1 Jan 2027
6% YES ↓ 0.5% 24h change ↓ 1% 7d change Live
YES NO 94%
Share:
24h Volume
$84
Liquidity
$8K
Score
84/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Current price
$70,500
BTC →
Market Stats
Market efficiency 41/100
Total vol. $7.8K
24h Volume $84
Liquidity $8K
Spread 2%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 1.6%
7d change ↓ 3.5%
Market Cap $1.41T
vs ATH -44.1% vs Oct 25
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 95% Sell 5%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 4
Largest trade $10
Avg. trade size $5

About this market

This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDTThis market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately. If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered.

18 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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