Ethereum
ETH What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

Closes in 266 days
1 Jan 2027
57.5% YES ↑ 1% 24h change ↓ 8% 7d change Live
YES NO 42.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$3K
Liquidity
$53K
Score
99/100
Historical probability + Current ETH price
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YES % Current ETH price
Price vs Target
$2,209
ETH current →
→ target: $1,500
Exceeded by 32.1%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 48/100
Total vol. $648.2K
24h Volume $3K
Liquidity $53K
Spread 1%
Book depth
Open interest $1.2M
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↓ 0.3%
7d change ↑ 7.1%
Market Cap $266.6B
vs ATH -55.4% vs Aug 25
Historical Context
Move needed -32.1% in 266 days
Market probability 57.5%
Historical base rate 14%
Market is 43.5 pts more optimistic than history
65 of 464 266-day periods for ETH achieved this move · annual vol: 59.3%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 60% Sell 40%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 93
Largest trade $352
Avg. trade size $18

About this market

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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