Bitcoin
BTC What will Bitcoin outperform in March?

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?

Closes in 10 days
31 Mar 2026
89% YES ↑ 0% 24h change Live
YES NO 11%
Share:
24h Volume
$280
Liquidity
$4K
Score
87/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
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YES % Current BTC price
Current price
$70,390
BTC →
Market Stats
Market efficiency 37/100
Total vol. $18.3K
24h Volume $280
Liquidity $4K
Spread 4%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 1.7%
7d change ↓ 3.6%
Market Cap $1.41T
vs ATH -44.2% vs Oct 25
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 77% Sell 23%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 8
Largest trade $40
Avg. trade size $9

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms Gold in the listed month, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the last day of the specified month in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on the first day of the specified month, 12:00 AM in the ET timezone (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day of the specified month to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day before the specified month, as reported by MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00). Exactly equal performance of both assets will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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