Bitcoin
BTC When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Closes in 266 days
1 Jan 2027
9.5% YES ↑ 0% 24h change Live
YES NO 90.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$110
Liquidity
$28K
Score
86/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$71,899
BTC current →
→ target: $150,000
Still 108.6% away
Market Stats
Market efficiency 44/100
Total vol. $291.1K
24h Volume $110
Liquidity $28K
Spread 1%
Book depth
Open interest $156.6K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 1%
7d change ↑ 7.5%
Market Cap $1.44T
vs ATH -43% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed +108.6% in 266 days
Market probability 9.5%
Historical base rate 0%
Market is broadly aligned with history
0 of 464 266-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 39.4%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 37% Sell 63%
Sellers dominant
Trades (24h) 5
Largest trade $5
Avg. trade size $2

About this market

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

28 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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