Bitcoin
BTC When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Closes in 286 days
1 Jan 2027
10.5% YES ↑ 1% 24h change ↑ 1% 1h ↓ 1% 7d change Live
YES NO 89.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$643
Liquidity
$27K
Score
87/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
Loading chart...
YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$70,556
BTC current →
→ target: $150,000
Still 112.6% away
Market Stats
Market efficiency 39/100
Total vol. $275.3K
24h Volume $643
Liquidity $27K
Spread 3%
Book depth —
Open interest —
View on PolyMarket ↗
Coin Metrics → #1
24h change ↓ 0.4%
7d change ↓ 1.5%
Market Cap $1.41T
vs ATH -44.1% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed +112.6% in 286 days
Market probability 10.5%
Historical base rate 0%
Market is broadly aligned with history
0 of 444 286-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 39.6%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 86% Sell 14%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 22
Largest trade $100
Avg. trade size $9

About this market

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

27 comments

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Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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