Bitcoin
BTC What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

Closes in 11 days
1 Apr 2026
0.3% YES ↑ 0% 24h change Live
YES NO 99.7%
Share:
24h Volume
$78K
Liquidity
$243K
Score
80/100
Historical probability + Current BTC price
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YES % Current BTC price
Price vs Target
$70,778
BTC current →
→ target: $20,000
Exceeded by 71.7%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 49/100
Total vol. $2.5M
24h Volume $78K
Liquidity $243K
Spread 0.1%
Book depth
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↓ 0.5%
7d change ↓ 0.8%
Market Cap $1.42T
vs ATH -43.9% vs Oct 25
Historical Context
Move needed -71.7% in 11 days
Market probability 0.3%
Historical base rate 0%
Market is broadly aligned with history
0 of 719 11-day periods for BTC achieved this move · annual vol: 39.6%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 53% Sell 47%
Balanced
Trades (24h) 409
Largest trade $2.6K
Avg. trade size $175

About this market

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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