other

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year above $20B FDV?

Closes in 268 days
1 Jan 2027
21.5% YES ↓ 3% 24h change ↑ 0.5% 7d change Live
YES NO 78.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$392
Liquidity
$4K
Score
92/100
Historical probability
Loading chart...
YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 36/100
Total vol. $2.1K
24h Volume $392
Liquidity $4K
Spread 5%
Book depth
Open interest $998
View on PolyMarket ↗
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 1
Largest trade $305
Avg. trade size $305

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

5 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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