other

Will 6+ coins launched in 2026 end the year above $1B FDV?

Closes in 263 days
1 Jan 2027
31% YES ↓ 7.5% 24h change ↓ 5% 7d change Live
YES NO 69%
Share:
24h Volume
Liquidity
$530
Score
54/100
Historical probability
Loading chart...
YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 14/100
Total vol.
24h Volume
Liquidity $530
Spread 44%
Book depth
Open interest $23
View on PolyMarket ↗

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 6 or more tokens launched in 2026 end the year with an FDV above $1B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, LSTs, liquidity pool tokens, or synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

1 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

Statistics →