Will 4PM-5PM ET be the best hourly candle on March 23?
About this market
This market will resolve to the hourly candle on the date specified in the title during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each hourly candle will be used. An hourly candle is considered finalized once the following hourly candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If Binance shows the same “Change” value for multiple hourly candles, the percentage change will be calculated using the Open and Close price of each hourly candle. If two or more hourly candles are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest hourly candle chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given outcome to have the highest percentage change, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.
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Understanding This Market
The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.
The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.
The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.
Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap
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