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Other Stablecoins depeg before 2027?

USD1 depeg by December 31?

Closes in 286 days
1 Jan 2027
13% YES ↑ 0% 24h change ↑ 1.5% 7d change Live
YES NO 87%
Share:
24h Volume
$2
Liquidity
$3K
Score
88/100
Historical probability
Loading chart...
YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 37/100
Total vol. $9.9K
24h Volume $2
Liquidity $3K
Spread 4%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 51% Sell 49%
Balanced
Trades (24h) 2
Largest trade $1
Avg. trade size $1

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USD1-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USD1 below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USD1-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSD1USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USD1-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USD1 information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USD1 was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.

3 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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