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Other Kraken IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?

Closes in 286 days
1 Jan 2027
15.5% YES ↓ 4% 24h change ↓ 2.5% 7d change Live
YES NO 84.5%
Share:
24h Volume
$485
Liquidity
$2K
Score
89/100
Historical probability
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YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 35/100
Total vol. $6.8K
24h Volume $485
Liquidity $2K
Spread 5%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 4
Largest trade $416
Avg. trade size $105

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Kraken’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

13 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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