Ethereum
ETH Ethereum above ___ on April 15?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 15?

Closes in 3 days
15 Apr 2026
4.1% YES ↓ 0.7% 24h change Live
YES NO 95.9%
Share:
24h Volume
$437
Liquidity
$12K
Score
83/100
Historical probability + Current ETH price
Loading chart...
YES % Current ETH price
Price vs Target
$2,216
ETH current →
→ target: $2,500
Still 12.8% away
Market Stats
Market efficiency 38/100
Total vol. $437
24h Volume $437
Liquidity $12K
Spread 3.2%
Book depth
Open interest $16.3K
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↓ 1.4%
7d change ↑ 8.4%
Market Cap $267.4B
vs ATH -55.3% vs Aug 25
Historical Context
Move needed +12.8% in 3 days
Market probability 4.1%
Historical base rate 2.9%
Market is broadly aligned with history
21 of 727 3-day periods for ETH achieved this move · annual vol: 59.1%
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 5
Largest trade $17
Avg. trade size $7

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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