Ethereum
ETH Ethereum above ___ on March 26?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26?

Closes in 6 days
26 Mar 2026
89.5% YES ↑ 0% 24h change Live
YES NO 10.5%
Share:
24h Volume
Liquidity
$10K
Score
87/100
Historical probability + Current ETH price
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YES % Current ETH price
Price vs Target
$2,129
ETH current →
→ target: $1,900
Exceeded by 10.7%
Market Stats
Market efficiency 39/100
Total vol.
24h Volume
Liquidity $10K
Spread 3%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
24h change ↑ 0%
7d change ↓ 1.2%
Market Cap $256.9B
vs ATH -57% vs Aug 25
Historical Context
Move needed -10.7% in 6 days
Market probability 89.5%
Historical base rate 9.8%
Market is 79.7 pts more optimistic than history
71 of 724 6-day periods for ETH achieved this move · annual vol: 59.5%

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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