other

Eric Adams arrested by March 31?

Closes in 10 days
31 Mar 2026
2% YES ↓ 0.6% 24h change ↑ 1.3% 7d change Live
YES NO 98%
Share:
24h Volume
$57
Liquidity
$6K
Score
81/100
Historical probability
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YES %
Market Stats
Market efficiency 41/100
Total vol. $1.1K
24h Volume $57
Liquidity $6K
Spread 1.8%
Book depth
Open interest
View on PolyMarket ↗
Trade Activity (24h)
Buy 100% Sell 0%
Buyers dominant
Trades (24h) 2
Largest trade $49
Avg. trade size $28

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former New York City mayor Eric Adams is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 comments

Understanding This Market

YES% = Probability

The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.

Spread & Score

The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.

Historical Base Rate

The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.

Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap

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