Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any S&P 500 company announces between November 4, 12:00 PM ET, and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a qualifying company announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source will be official announcements from qualifying companies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Understanding This Market
The YES% is the crowd's collective probability estimate. A price of 0.72 means traders imply a 72% chance of resolving YES — each $1 share pays out $1 if the event occurs, $0 if not.
The bid-ask spread is the cost of trading. Tight spreads (< 2%) indicate liquid, active markets. The competitive score (0–100) reflects overall market quality and efficiency.
The historical base rate shows how often a similar price move occurred in comparable time windows. A large gap between market probability and base rate may signal over- or under-pricing.
Data from PolyMarket via Gamma API · Updated every 15 min · Crypto prices from CoinMarketCap
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