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Trove founder arrested by March 31?

Encerra em 11 dias
1 abr 2026
14.6% SIM ↑ 0% Variação 24h Ao vivo
SIM NÃO 85.4%
Partilhar:
Volume 24h
Liquidez
$692
Pontuação
66/100
Probabilidade histórica
Carregando gráfico...
SIM %
Dados do mercado
Eficiência do mercado 16/100
Vol. total
Volume 24h
Liquidez $692
Spread 26.1%
Profundidade do livro
Interesse aberto
Ver no PolyMarket ↗
Atividade de trades (24h)
Compra 0% Venda 100%
Vendedores dominam
Trades (24h) 1
Maior trade $22
Trade médio $22

Sobre este mercado

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the trove founder (https://x.com/unwisecap) is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The arrested or detained individual must be credibly identified as the Trove founder operating the X account https://x.com/unwisecap, as confirmed by official statements, court documents, or a consensus of credible reporting Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 comentários

Como interpretar este mercado

YES% = Probabilidade

O YES% é a estimativa coletiva de probabilidade do mercado. Um preço de 0,72 significa que os traders estimam uma probabilidade de 72% de resolução YES — cada quota de $1 paga $1 se o evento ocorrer, $0 caso contrário.

Spread e Pontuação

O spread bid-ask é o custo de negociação. Spreads reduzidos (< 2%) indicam mercados líquidos e ativos. A pontuação competitiva (0–100) reflete a qualidade geral e a eficiência do mercado.

Taxa Histórica de Base

A taxa histórica de base mostra com que frequência ocorreu um movimento de preço semelhante em janelas temporais comparáveis. Uma grande diferença entre a probabilidade do mercado e a taxa histórica pode indicar sobre ou subavaliação.

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